The feature Betway Craven Stakes saw Oxagon provide the Gosden team with yet another win in this prestigious trial. Under a masterful, front-running ride from Oisin Murphy, the 7/4 shot wasn’t just “good”—he looked like a horse that knows exactly where the 2000 Guineas start line is. He stayed on powerfully to beat Avicenna by two lengths, seeing his Guineas odds slashed to 25/1.
The Abernant Stakes delivered the day’s “cheeky” shock. While the big names were expected to fight it out, veteran sprinter Run To Freedom (28/1) decided he wasn’t ready for the retirement home just yet, showing a devastating turn of foot to claim the spoils for Henry Candy. And for the Royalists in the crowd, Portcullis romped home in the King and Queen’s silks, looking like a proper Group horse in the making.
Ayr Preview: Haggis, Hurdles, and Heartaches
Tomorrow, the focus shifts north of the border for the two-day Scottish Grand National Meeting. It’s the time of year when the jumps season starts checking its watch, but Ayr remains the ultimate “last hurrah” for the stayers.
The course at Ayr is a galloping, left-handed oval that usually demands a horse with a big engine and even bigger lungs. Unlike the Aintree slog, Ayr often provides better ground, favoring those who can actually pick up their feet rather than just swim through the mud.
The Stats That Matter
The King and Queen of Ayr: Lucinda Russell and Nicky Richards usually treat this place like their own backyard. Pay close attention to anything Richards sends over from Greystoke (boasting a massive 34% strike rate here).
The Irish Factor: Keep an eye on Gordon Elliott. He doesn’t just come for the scenery; his strike rate at Ayr is a formidable 46%.
Key Betting & Performance Trends
If you’re looking for a “statistical” profile of a winner, keep these metrics in mind:
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won the last two renewals (2024, 2025). In 2026, he aims for a historic hat-trick, likely relying on Road To Home.
Weight Matters: Historically, this is a “light-weight” race. Over 70% of winners in the last 20 years carried 11st or less. However, classier horses have begun to defy this recently (e.g., Captain Cody at 11st 4lb).
Age Profile: While “marathon” chases often favor older horses, 7 and 8-year-olds have been the most successful age group lately.
Stat Note: No 13-year-old has won since 1923.
Recent Form: 15 of the last 23 winners finished in the top three on their previous start.
Aintree Connection: It is rare for a horse to run in the Aintree Grand National and win at Ayr in the same season, though Earth Summit (1994) and Little Polveir (1987) are famous exceptions who did the reverse.
2026 Quick Stats
• Distance: 3 miles, 7 furlongs, 176 yards.
• Fences: 27.
• Top Weight: Blaze The Way (12st 0lb).
• Low Weight: Several horses are weighted at the 10st 0lb minimum (or out of the handicap).
What to Expect for the Big One (Saturday)
While Friday is the appetizer, Saturday’s Scottish Grand National is the main course. The early buzz is around Kim Roque (Joseph O’Brien) and the seasoned Git Maker. But if you want a cheeky longshot, Promontory looks exactly like the type of “Dublin Chase” graduate that could thrive over this marathon 4-mile trip.
Pack your binoculars and perhaps a raincoat, it is Scotland, after all. Are you looking to focus on the handicaps tomorrow, or are you holding out for a Saturday “hail mary” in the National?
Will add more tomorrow morning 🌅
Silks and Shenanigans 