In the world of two-mile chasing, they say it’s not the fall that kills you, it’s the hope. But as we gallop toward the 2026 Queen Mother Champion Chase, hope has been replaced by a heavy dose of “what might have been” for some, and a terrifying realization of Willie Mullins’ dominance for everyone else.
Grab your binoculars and a stiff drink; here is the state of play for Wednesday’s feature.
The “Sore” State of Affairs: Marine National Withdraws
If you heard a collective groan echoing from the Wicklow Mountains to the Cotswolds on Tuesday morning, it was the sound of Barry Connell’s heart, ❤️ and the betting slips of ante-post punters, hitting the floor.
Marine Nationale, the defending champion and the only horse deemed capable of staring down the Closutton battalion, has been scratched from the race. The culprit? A “sore neck” discovered on Tuesday morning. Apparently, the nine-year-old got “cast” in his box (horse-speak for having a bit of a literal bedroom mishap).
Trainer Barry Connell was characteristically candid: “It’s horrendous luck… we’re just out of time.” For a horse that looked like a Ferrari in 2025, his 2026 campaign ends with the engine failing to start in the driveway. The dream of a third Festival win is parked until Punchestown.
The Closutton Civil War: Majborough vs. Il Etait Temps
With the Marine out of the water, the Champion Chase has turned into a private party for Willie Mullins. But which invitation should you accept?
The Juggernaut: Majborough
If Majborough were a person, he’d be the guy who brings a flamethrower to a knife fight. After a patchy start to the season, they slapped on a pair of cheekpieces for the Dublin Chase and he turned the Grade 1 into a 19-length demolition job. He didn’t just beat his rivals; he evicted them from the racecourse.
• The Vibe: High-risk, high-reward. He likes to go from the front and dare the others to stay with him.
The Street Fighter: Il Etait Temps
While Majborough is the powerhouse, Il Etait Temps is the scrappy overachiever who refuses to be ignored. He conquered the Tingle Creek earlier this term and possesses a turn of foot that can be lethal. However, he comes here off the back of a fall in the Clarence House—a “tired fall” that suggests he might have been punching above his weight that day.
• The Vibe: The value alternative, provided his confidence hasn’t stayed behind at Ascot.
The Master Class: Trainer Stats
To find the winner, you usually follow the silver foxes of the training ranks. The Champion Chase is a “big boys” race, and the records prove it.
• Willie Mullins: Has won 2 of the last 4 renewals (Energumene). He currently saddles the top two in the market and looks poised to claim his third title in five years.
• Nicky Henderson: Joint record-holder with 6 wins. While Jonbon is the veteran underdog this year, never count out the Seven Barrows master in this specific contest.
• Henry De Bromhead: 3 wins since 2011 (Sizing Europe, Special Tiara, Put The Kettle On). He is the king of producing an upset when everyone is looking elsewhere.
• Dan Skelton: The “Home Team” hope. L’Eau Du Sud is arguably the most improved chaser in Britain, and Skelton is hungry for his first Champion Chase trophy.
The Verdict
Without Marine Nationale to keep him honest, this race is Majborough’s to lose. He is the highest-rated chaser in training (Timeform 179) and is entering his prime at age six. Unless he gets “cast” in his own thoughts at the first fence, the rest are playing for place money.
II Etait Temps, RPR 176 and better ground might jump better. He’s a bit of a “versatility king,” but his best Timeform figures have often come when there’s a bit of a bounce in the turf. If it dries out to Good to Soft, his speed becomes a serious weapon.
If you’re looking for an excuse to ignore the favorite, L’Eau Du Sud has the tactical speed to capitalize if Majborough’s jumping unravels under the Cheltenham roar. 🦁
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🏆 The “Naps” of the Day (Wednesday, March 4)
The tipsters have spoken. If you’re looking for the consensus “Bankers” across the morning papers and specialist sites, these three are the most tipped:
1. The Professional’s Choice: Brechin Castle (2:20 Naas)
• Tipsters: OLBG Experts, Racing Post, Daily Mail.
• The Verdict: It’s a classic Mullins “stat-filler.” He was a Listed bumper winner and the word from Closutton is that he’s been schooling like a seasoned pro. He is the Nap of the Day for the majority of the Irish circuit.
2. The Value Play: Jo’s Secret (2:40 Catterick)
• Tipsters: Newsboy (Daily Mirror), Templegate (The Sun).
• The Verdict: A Jukebox Jury mare who has been knocking at the door. Dropped into a Mares’ Maiden Hurdle, she’s expected to finally shed the bridesmaid tag.
3. The Nightcap: Hatysa (5:40 Southwell)
• Tipsters: The Brigadier, PuntersLounge.
• The Verdict: For those playing under the floodlights, this one has been highlighted for “significant tactical advantage” on the Southwell Tapeta.
🏇 The Trainer “Hot List”
If you’re betting blind, follow the yards that are currently “clucking”:
• Willie Mullins (Naas): Operating at a 34% strike rate in the last 14 days. If he sends one to Naas tomorrow, it’s usually to win, not for the scenery.
• Jamie Snowden (Catterick): Has a +£12.50 profit to a £1 stake over the last month with his travelers to the north. Watch Flying Pimpernel (2:40).
• Charlie Johnston (Kempton): The master of the “All-Weather Raid.” His runners at Kempton tomorrow have an average Timeform “Master Rating” 5lbs higher than the field average.
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