The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (Wednesday, 3:20 PM) has become the Cheltenham Festival’s version of a “specialist’s reunion,” where horses spend half the race jumping hedges and the other half wondering if they’ve accidentally wandered into a local farmer’s paddock.
Since returning to a handicap format, the “insider” game has shifted from finding the best horse to finding the horse the handicapper hasn’t yet punished for its sins.
The Heavyweight Duel: Favori De Champdou vs. Stumptown
This is the “Clash of the Titans” (if Titans enjoyed jumping over cheese wedges and railway sleepers).
• Stumptown (The Defending Champ):
• The Vibe: He’s the undisputed king of this niche discipline. He won this last year and hasn’t looked back, racking up a sequence of cross-country wins at both Cheltenham and Punchestown.
• The Data: He’s the clear 162-rated favorite, but he has to shoulder top weight (11st 10lb). He’s the “banker” for many, but history shows that giving away lumps of weight over 3m 6f is a tall order even for a specialist.
• Favori De Champdou (The Emerging Threat):
• The Vibe: A Gordon Elliott special. He looked like a machine when bolting up by 8.5 lengths on Trials Day in January.
• The Data: His owners (Gigginstown) are actually worried. That January win earned him a 8lb rise in the weights. He now sits just 5lb behind Stumptown.
• The Verdict: While Stumptown has the “been there, done that” T-shirt, Favori De Champdou is the younger, arguably more progressive model. However, the weight swing makes this a much tighter handicap than their raw ability suggests.
The “Sneaky” Insider Pick: Conflated
At 20/1, the 12-year-old former Gold Cup third is the “forgotten horse.” He’s running off his lowest mark since 2021. If the ground dries up, he has the Grade 1 class to make the “specialists” look like they’re standing still.
The Dark Horse
Vanillier (10st 7lb): The 2023 Grand National runner-up. He finished 4th behind Stumptown last year but is now 7lb better off at the weights. At 10st 7lb, he is the “hidden” well-handicapped horse of the race.
Racing Tomorrow: Tuesday, March 3rd
If you’re looking for a bankroll-builder before Wednesday’s madness, Timeform is pointing its binoculars toward Newcastle.
Top Rated
• 4:05 Newcastle – Passing Pleasure: Rating: Top rated by 4lb.
• Why: Comes here seeking a hat-trick. The handicapper gave him a 4lb rise for his last win, but Timeform believes he is still “significantly ahead of his mark” (indicated by the ‘p’ symbol).
• 3:05 Newcastle – Silver Hill:
• Rating: Top rated by 2lb.
• Why: A Jamie Snowden runner who thrives on a galloping track. He’s the form choice in a thin race.
The NAPs (Best Bets)
• The NAP: Passing Pleasure (4:05 Newcastle) – Currently around 11/10.
• The Each-Way Value: Green Bonnet (2:05 Newcastle) – A solid 7/2 shout who has been knocking on the door and finally gets his preferred soft surface.
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