We have officially reached that point in the National Hunt calendar where the racing community collectively loses its mind. We’re less than a month out from the Festival, and the symptoms are everywhere: grown men are arguing over sectional times in the Prestbury Park mud, and every schooling session is being treated like the Zapruder film.
But while the “Twitter Tipsters” were busy debating whether a horse’s cough in the Cotswolds means a non-runner at the Arkle, those of us with real skin in the game were focused on the mud-and-flood reality of Plumpton and the neon-lit grind of Wolverhampton.
If you survived the Monday “shenanigans,” here is the insider’s autopsy of today’s results.
Plumpton: The Tizzard Steamroller and a “Dirty” Result
Plumpton today was less of a racecourse and more of a maritime obstacle course. The ground was described as “Soft, Heavy in places,” which translates to “if you aren’t carrying 12 stone of pure grit, don’t bother showing up.” Video @skysports
- The 13:45 Stroll: If you took the 2/9 on Star of Affinity, I hope those pennies were worth the stress of watching a horse navigate 15 lengths of solitude. Joe Tizzard isn’t just training winners; he’s staging exhibitions. It was a professional job, but from a betting perspective, it had all the excitement of watching paint dry—if the paint was 15 lengths clear of the wall.
- The Tizzard Double: They went again in the 14:45 with Tennessee Tango (4/9f). Brendan Powell looks like he’s riding on autopilot at this point. For those of us looking for “value,” the Tizzard camp is currently the Grinch that stole the handicap.
- The Script Flip in the 15:45: This was the highlight for the “Shenanigans” crowd. Everyone was looking at Luwdvig, but it was Dirty Den (9/2) who handled the sludge with the most composure. It was a gritty, ugly, beautiful win. The kind of result that reminds you why the “insider” money often waits for the horse that doesn’t mind getting its mane messy.
- The Moore Factor: Gary Moore taking the 15:15 with Icare Grandchamp (5/4f) was the most predictable thing to happen in Sussex since it last rained. When the Moores target a Plumpton pot, you usually just hand them the trophy at the gate and save everyone the laundry bill.
Wolverhampton: Billy’s World, We’re Just Living In It
As the sun set, the action shifted to the Tapeta, where the pace was faster and the favorites were a lot more fragile.
- The Loughnane Tax: We need to talk about Billy Loughnane. In the 16:25, he guided Utmost Good Faith (5/4f) home like he was steering a grocery cart through an empty aisle. He’s reaching that level of “AP McCoy-ism” where the odds on his rides are compressed simply because he is the one sitting in the plate.
- The 18:30 Heartbreak: This was the “Shenanigan of the Day.” Starfighter went off at 4/6, and the “Smart Money” (which was clearly feeling a bit concussed) piled in. But Spaceage Love Song (4/1) had other ideas, swooping in to remind us that favorites under the floodlights are about as reliable as a chocolate teapot. If you followed the favorite here, I hope you have a short memory.
- The Lion’s Share: We wrapped up with Lion Ring (12/1) in the 20:00. This was a classic “insider” result—a horse that had been knocking on the door finally kicked it down when the market had largely looked elsewhere. It’s the kind of result that saves a bad Monday and makes the drive home feel a lot shorter.
Are we panicking yet? Not quite. But if you see a “Loughnane-esque” shift in the market for a random 20/1 shot in the Coral Cup tomorrow, you’ll know the shenanigans are officially in high gear.
The Insider’s Tip for Tomorrow: Keep a very close eye on the declarations for the mid-week hurdles. There are a couple of “dark horses” being prepped for a handicap mark that would make a bookie weep.
Ayr 14:02 – Ballymackie: Highly regarded by analysts for this 2m 4f handicap chase. He sits significantly “clear” on adjusted Timeform ratings.
• Lingfield 13:48 – Fidelius: A strong “Horse In Focus” selection. Was a close second last time and remains ahead of the handicapper.
• Ayr 13:35 – So Many Roads: Highlighted for a potential repeat C&D win after scoring over the same track and trip last month.
Summary of Meetings
• Ayr (Jumps): Going is Good to Soft (Soft in places). Focus on horses with proven stamina, as the 3m+ races will be testing.
• Lingfield (All-Weather): Standard surface. Look for horses with high “Speed Ratings,” particularly in the sprints.
• Ffos Las (Jumps): Soft ground expected. Check for the “Heavy Ground” flag in Timeform’s symbols.
Silks and Shenanigans 